However, that simply means that the downturn has reached the bottom. It will take some time for the market to see an upswing. Many in the construction profession do not believe there will be an upswing for at least another year. In some markets, such as the residential market, the upswing may take two to three years.”

Maintain the standards
In the UK things are looking a little bit more upbeat. Smaller firms specializing in repair and maintenance have generally continued to work, if not with such long delays between accepting an order and carrying out the work.

However, Robert Burgon believes that one of the most concerning impacts has been that around 8% of the apprentices in training have been made redundant, with many unable to find a new employer willing to take them on.

It is also felt that new apprentice recruitment in August 2009 will be lower than in 2008 (which was lower than the previous years). Relatively small numbers of business failures have been reported but this could still change.

As for beating the recession, Burgon says it is up to the individual business.

“Each individual business has to make its own decisions, but such a period is a good opportunity for the well-qualified, professional business to highlight to clients that it can do more and better than those which are not so well qualified. It is also a good time to highlight the important role which plumbing plays in relation to health and the environment.”

If there’s one thing that all in the industry agrees upon, it is the maintenance of standards. The repercussions would be dire if plumbing and industry standards were to drop. In harsh times, this would set the industry back to the dark ages.

As Burgon has said, this is the perfect time to let the general public know how important plumbing is to the wellbeing and safety of the general community.

In the less developed nation of South Africa, it is upholding standards across the maintenance and construction sectors that will sustain the industry.

“The introduction of the Plumbing Industry Registration Board (PIRB), a voluntary registration program, will have a positive effect for those taking up the program and those not taking it up will regrettably fall by the wayside as PIRB becomes more recognized,” McNamara says.

The advent of this board means standards will be better upheld.

“In a price driven sector, with poor policing of standards, such as we are in, the more we can reinforce standards, health and hygiene, the more plumbing will receive recognition for its real function and it becomes less of a ‘grudge’ purchase.”

It also means that there is no need for undercutting or undervaluing the work.

Like Ballanco, McNamara says it is necessary to uphold standards to alleviate the industry of the ‘fly by nighters’ and those who are in the business of making a quick buck including plumbers, manufacturers and suppliers.

The future
“My crystal ball indicates stabilization for South Africa now (if our Reserve Bank does not drop interest rates anymore), but the real turnaround will only come through mid 2010,” says McNamara.

“If the Reserve Bank does drop rates now the turnaround will be delayed by at least a year after mid 2010. This is solely due to high unemployment (close to 30%). Lowering rates will have very little effect on almost a third of the population and will therefore have no immediate benefit for an upturn as this impacts on our primary industries.”

In the first world, some are saying the recession is over, but there will be no real upswing for at least another 12 months.

Unfortunately, the crystal ball may only leave us open to speculation – the same speculation that got us all into trouble in the first place.

So what will happen next?

“That is the question to which everyone wants to have the answer,” says Burgon.